A Complete Guide To Penalty Shootout Betting

Few moments in football are as nerve-wracking and dramatic as a penalty shootout. After 120 minutes of regular and extra time, when two teams are still tied, the game is often decided by penalties. For fans, this is edge-of-the-seat tension. For bettors, it’s also an opportunity to explore a unique betting market known in Vietnam as “kèo penalty.”

Although exciting, penalty betting is football prediction for today matches correctly very different from traditional wagers. It involves high uncertainty, significant psychological pressure on players, and a heavy dose of luck. This guide explains what penalty betting is, the three most common types available, and how to approach it wisely.

What Is “Kèo Penalty”?

“Kèo penalty” refers to bets placed on the outcome of a penalty shootout. This market only comes into play if the match is tied after both 90 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes of extra time. If a team wins during regular or extra time, there is no shootout, and penalty bets are either void or not offered.

In a standard shootout:

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  Each team takes five penalty kicks.

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  If the score is still level, the shootout goes to sudden death until one team wins.

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  The final penalty score (for example, 5–4 or 6–5) determines the outcome of bets.

Because penalty shootouts are best football prediction site in the world high-pressure events, outcomes can be unpredictable. Even world-class players sometimes miss, while underdogs may surprise everyone. This is what makes kèo penalty both thrilling and risky.

Three Common Types of Penalty Bets

Bookmakers typically offer three main penalty betting markets. Each comes with different risk and reward levels.

1. Over/Under Penalty Kicks (Tài/Xỉu 7 trái)

In this market, you predict whether the total number of successful penalty goals scored by both teams will be over or under a set number—commonly seven.

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  Example: If the shootout ends 4–3 after the first five kicks each, the total is seven. A bet on “Under 7” would push (stake returned).

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  If it goes to sudden death and ends 6–5, the total is eleven, so “Over 7” wins.

This market appeals to bettors football prediction app who want to avoid picking a specific team and instead focus on the overall length of the shootout.

2. Exact Penalty Score

This is one of the toughest but most rewarding bets. You must predict the exact final score of the penalty shootout.

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  Example: If you bet on Team A to win 5–4 and the final score is exactly 5–4, you win.

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  If it ends 4–3 or 6–5, your bet loses, even though Team A still won.

Because the odds of guessing correctly are low, payouts are usually high.

3. Winning Team Prediction

The simplest form is to bet on which team will win the shootout. This is similar to a moneyline bet.

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  Example: If you back Team B and they win 5–3 in penalties, your bet is successful.

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  If Team A wins, your bet loses, regardless of the score.

This option is straightforward, less risky than the other two, and is the most popular choice among casual bettors.

Factors to Consider in Penalty Betting

While penalties involve luck, certain elements can improve your chances:

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   Penalty History
   Some teams have historically performed well in shootouts. For example, Germany’s national team has often been strong in penalties, while England had a reputation for poor shootout results in past tournaments.

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   Goalkeeper Ability
   A goalkeeper with a strong record of saving penalties can tilt the odds. If one side has a world-class keeper, it may be safer to back them.

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   Penalty Takers
   Knowing who is likely to take penalties and how consistent they are can help. Teams with more confident, experienced players usually have an advantage.

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   Psychological Momentum
   How the match unfolded can affect morale. A team that equalized late may carry momentum into penalties, while a team that conceded in stoppage time may be under pressure.

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   Live Odds Movement
   Some bookmakers only open penalty markets once the shootout is confirmed. Watching how odds shift in real time may reveal market sentiment and provide value opportunities.

Example Scenarios

Let’s look at some hypothetical cases:

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  Over/Under: Team A and Team B tie 2–2 after extra time. The shootout goes 5–4. That’s nine goals in total, so “Over 7” wins.

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  Exact Score: If you predicted 5–4 exactly and that’s the result, you hit the jackpot. But if it ended 4–3, you lose.

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  Winning Team: Backing Team A to win means you succeed regardless of whether the score is 5–3, 6–5, or even 8–7.

Advantages and Risks

Advantages

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  Excitement: Penalty shootouts are among the most dramatic moments in football.

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  Multiple markets: Options like Over/Under, exact score, or winning team provide variety.

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  Potential for high payouts: Especially in exact score betting, odds can be very attractive.

Risks

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  High variance: Even strong teams can lose shootouts due to nerves.

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  Luck factor: Small details—like a slip on the pitch—can decide the result.

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  Limited frequency: These bets only apply in knockout games that reach penalties.

Tips for Smarter Penalty Betting

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   Bet small: Because outcomes are so unpredictable, keep your stakes lower than in regular markets.

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   Do research: Check teams’ penalty records, key players, and goalkeepers.

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   Stay calm: Don’t chase losses by betting heavily during shootouts.

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   Pick safer options: If you prefer lower risk, the “winning team” bet is usually safer than exact score.

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   Use bonuses or free bets: Some bookmakers offer promotions during big tournaments—good for high-risk bets like penalties.

Final Thoughts

“Kèo penalty” adds another layer of drama to football betting. While inherently risky, it offers thrilling opportunities for those who enjoy the unpredictability of shootouts. The three main markets—Over/Under, exact score, and winning team—each carry different levels of challenge and reward.

For beginners, predicting the winning team is the safest starting point. For those chasing big payouts, exact score betting can be tempting, though very difficult. Regardless of which market you choose, always manage your bankroll carefully and remember that no method can guarantee success in a penalty shootout.

At the end of the day, betting on penalties should be treated as entertainment, not as a guaranteed money-making strategy. Approach it with caution, enjoy the thrill, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.